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Random Variation

"Things go wrong. The odds catch up. Probability is like gravity: you cannot negotiate with gravity." Det. James 'Sonny' Crockett, Miami Vice The Movie.

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Random Variation | randomvariation.blogspot.com Reviews
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&quot;Things go wrong. The odds catch up. Probability is like gravity: you cannot negotiate with gravity.&quot; Det. James &#39;Sonny&#39; Crockett, Miami Vice The Movie.
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Random Variation | randomvariation.blogspot.com Reviews

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&quot;Things go wrong. The odds catch up. Probability is like gravity: you cannot negotiate with gravity.&quot; Det. James &#39;Sonny&#39; Crockett, Miami Vice The Movie.

INTERNAL PAGES

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1

Random Variation: December 2012

http://randomvariation.blogspot.com/2012_12_01_archive.html

Things go wrong. The odds catch up. Probability is like gravity: you cannot negotiate with gravity." Det. James 'Sonny' Crockett, Miami Vice The Movie. Friday, December 28, 2012. A Better Black Friday Retail Sales Model. Two earlier posts ( here. Described a simple hierarchical linear model (HLM) for Black Friday Retail Sales using data from an article in the Washington Post ( here. The pedagogical purpose of the HLM exercise was to display one answer to Simpson's Paradox. Friday, December 7, 2012. First...

2

Random Variation: October 2012

http://randomvariation.blogspot.com/2012_10_01_archive.html

Things go wrong. The odds catch up. Probability is like gravity: you cannot negotiate with gravity." Det. James 'Sonny' Crockett, Miami Vice The Movie. Sunday, October 14, 2012. HLMs: The ML Estimator. In a prior post ( here. Package has been developed by Doug Bates at the University of Wisconsin and is considered state-of-the-art for ML estimation of mixed models, that is, models with both fixed and random effects, such as hierarchical models. Package documentation is available here. Given at the UseR!

3

Random Variation: February 2012

http://randomvariation.blogspot.com/2012_02_01_archive.html

Things go wrong. The odds catch up. Probability is like gravity: you cannot negotiate with gravity." Det. James 'Sonny' Crockett, Miami Vice The Movie. Friday, February 17, 2012. Peeking, Tweaking and Cross-Validation. The classical Null Hypothesis Testing (NHT) paradigm (see my prior posts on NHT here. Is focused almost exclusively on the critical experiment. The critical experiment, for example the gold-standard clinical trial. Is set up to insure that a hypothesis. Is there a solution to this dilemma?

4

Random Variation: The 'hlmmc' package

http://randomvariation.blogspot.com/2012/09/the-hlmmc-package.html

Things go wrong. The odds catch up. Probability is like gravity: you cannot negotiate with gravity." Det. James 'Sonny' Crockett, Miami Vice The Movie. Sunday, September 16, 2012. From July 1 through August 15, I taught Sociology S534 Advanced Sociological Analysis: Hierarchical Linear Models. At the University of Tennessee in Knoxville. A syllabus for the course is available here. It explains how to download the software and how each function in the package can be used (also, see NOTE below). Typically,...

5

Random Variation: Generating Hierarchical Black Friday Data

http://randomvariation.blogspot.com/2012/12/generating-hierarchical-black-friday.html

Things go wrong. The odds catch up. Probability is like gravity: you cannot negotiate with gravity." Det. James 'Sonny' Crockett, Miami Vice The Movie. Thursday, December 6, 2012. Generating Hierarchical Black Friday Data. Following up on my last post ( here. My guess is that Paul Dales of Capital Economics. Since this posting is meant to show you how to generate your own Black Friday data set, load the hlmmc. Libraries and procedures as usual in the R console window (using the hlmmc. To make things simp...

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Facts, Fictions and Forecasts: December 2012

http://factsfictionsforecasts.blogspot.com/2012_12_01_archive.html

Facts, Fictions and Forecasts. What intrigues us as a problem, and what will satisfy us as a solution, will depend upon the line we draw between what is already clear and what needs to be clarified," Nelson Goodman. All state space models are written and estimated in the R programming language. The models are available here. With instructions and R procedures for manipulating the models here here. Thursday, December 27, 2012. The Financial Forecast Center. The current forecast is displayed in the graphic...

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