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Election 2016: Our final prediction - Oraclum blog
http://oraclum.eu/election-2016-final-prediction
Election 2016: Our final prediction. Election 2016: Our final prediction. Nov 08, 2016 0 comments. The time has come. We are now finished with our prediction poll. First and foremost we would like to thank everyone who participated and gave us their predictions. We ran them through our best model and here are the results:. It looks like a Trump victory. We’re predicting Trump to take the key swing states: Florida. This should bring him to about 284 electoral college votes. See the probability graph above...
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Post-election analysis: have the polls underestimated Trump? - Oraclum blog
http://oraclum.eu/post-election-analysis-polls-underestimated-trump
Post-election analysis: have the polls underestimated Trump? Post-election analysis: have the polls underestimated Trump? Nov 20, 2016 0 comments. In the previous post. We discussed the precision of our model’s result, particularly compared to predictions made by other forecasters and pollsters. On a state-by-state level our BASON method. Let’s start by first taking a look at how close our method was for our predicted states compared to the ones we did not predict. Keep in mind that we had enough data.
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Election2016: A comparison of predictions - Oraclum blog
http://oraclum.eu/election2016-comparison-predictions
Election2016: A comparison of predictions. Election2016: A comparison of predictions. Oct 11, 2016 0 comments. NOTE: This text is being regularly updated. Current data is from October 30th 2016. In addition to our central prediction method (the BASON survey. Described in the previous blog) we will use a series of benchmarks. For comparison compiled from a multitude of available polls, predictions, models, markets, etc. whose predictions we intend to update regularly (every five days). The second group of...
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May 2016 - Oraclum blog
http://oraclum.eu/2016/05
Posts made in May, 2016. Our method and benchmarks for Brexit referendum. May 25, 16. Posted by Vuk Vuković. Our prediction method rests primarily upon our Facebook survey, where we use a variety of Bayesian updating methodologies to filter out internal biases in order to offer the most precise prediction. In essence we ask our participants to express their preference of who they will vote for (e.g. Leave or Remain for the Brexit. We will be forecasting the Brexit referendum. May 19, 16. On We called it!
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3D interactive visualization of election results - Oraclum blog
http://oraclum.eu/3d-interactive-visualization-election-results
3D interactive visualization of election results. 3D interactive visualization of election results. Jun 06, 2016 0 comments. Oraclum Intelligence Systems provides custom designed 3D visualizations of election results suitable for showing during live TV broadcast. Images and video below are snapshots from an example of real-time interactive presentation of election and statistical results on a 3D map of Croatia. The visualization is created in Ventuz. How we predicted a Trump victory. On We called it!
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Election 2016: What the others are saying? - Oraclum blog
http://oraclum.eu/election-2016-others-saying
Election 2016: What the others are saying? Election 2016: What the others are saying? Nov 07, 2016 0 comments. As you may or may not know, we have been tracking a considerable amount of benchmark predictions. Over the past month or so, to get a feel of where the race is going. We tracked everything, from polling aggregation sites to a number of poll and non-poll based models, to the prediction markets, and even the GJP superforecasters. The trends are summarized in the following graph:. 8211; they have r...
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Featured Archives - Oraclum blog
http://oraclum.eu/category/featured
Post-election analysis: have the polls underestimated Trump? Nov 20, 16. Posted by Vuk Vuković. In the previous post we discussed the precision of our model’s result, particularly compared to predictions made by other forecasters and pollsters. On a state-by-state level our BASON method was arguably the most precise, having missed only 3 states: Michigan, Wisconsin and New Hampshire. However, for Wisconsin we did not have. How we predicted a Trump victory. Nov 13, 16. Posted by Vuk Vuković. Nov 08, 16.
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October 2016 - Oraclum blog
http://oraclum.eu/2016/10
Posts made in October, 2016. Election2016: A comparison of predictions. Oct 11, 16. Posted by Vuk Vuković. NOTE: This text is being regularly updated. Current data is from October 30th 2016. In addition to our central prediction method (the BASON survey described in the previous blog) we will use a series of benchmarks for comparison compiled from a multitude of available polls, predictions, models, markets, etc. whose predictions we. Who will be the next US President? Oct 04, 16. Posted by Vuk Vuković.
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